Tuesday, October 30, 2012

A GUIDE TO WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON ELECTION NIGHT 2012!

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President Barack Obama/Mitt Romney!
Who will Win?

(Scroll Down for Results and Update.)
  
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 The corporate media has been reporting the
national presidential popularity polls 
with a composite of the most recent showing
the race for the presidency tied at 48%.
*
First, the national polls mean little. 
* 
 A President is determined by an "Electoral 
 College", with each of the 50 States 
participating on a formula based on the 
number of elected senators (2 per State) 
and  a States number of elected 
representatives which is based on 
population.
*
(This is one of many Electoral College Map
models found on the Internet.)
  *
For example, the most populist State,
California, has 55 electoral votes while 
South Dakota has 3 
(2 Senators/1 Representative).
*
Whichever candidate wins the most votes
in a given State wins all the electoral votes
in that State.
*
A minimum of 270 electoral votes are 
needed to claim the presidency.
************
So, here's what to look for this coming 
November 6, as to who will win this
2012 election.
*
Our analysis is based on  composite
"snapshot" polls of and trends of
likely voters in
each of the so-called "swing" States
over the past eight months.
(The "SWING"  States are shown in "GREY" in the above 
Electoral College Model.)
  *
The first State to watch is Pennsylvania. We 
are calling this State for Obama. But look out
for his margin of victory. If the points he
has over Romney after this State is called 
are down to 3 , there is
trouble ahead for the incumbent.
*
Next, perhaps the most important State in
this election cycle mix is Wisconsin. 
Given composite polls over past months
Obama has remained in the lead in this
State, but within the margin of error
to give it 'undecided' status.
*
We predict at the end of the night Obama
will have both Wisconsin and Michigan in his
column by 3 and 5 points, respectively.
*
Ohio is always an important State and
has swung both red and blue in recent history.
*
Given Ohio polling over the past 6 months,
with a consistant, healthy lead for Obama,
plus a thriving economy compared to
other States, we project Ohio for The
President by 7 points.
*
Should Obama win either Iowa or Nevada,
or both, with the blue States already in
his column, Obama will have the 
necessary electoral votes (270) to claim
re-election. 
*
Accordingly, we project a second term
for President Obama.
*
With Colorado, New Hampshire and
Virginia in the polling margins of
error making the races
in these States a statistical
dead heat, these States 'tick slightly 
forward' for Obama, and have done so
 for months. We are also projecting these
(not needed) electoral college 
delegates for Obama which would
give him a final total in the 290+
range in the electoral college.
*
We are projecting Florida and 
North Carolina for the Romney Camp.
These delegates along with his "red 
State" count would give him an 
electoral delegate count in the
low 200's, which is not near the
needed 270 to claim the presidency.

On occasion one candidate can win the
popular vote and lose the election. And this 
year is ripe for this possibility.
*
Utah, Texas, and some deep South States
show lop-sided numbers favoring Romney. 
Utah polls of likely voters give  
Romney 71% to Obama's 24%.      

Although the national numbers may be
very close between these candidates,
look for President Obama's 
return to the White House for
another 4 years. 
*************
(Update November 8, 2012: So, how did we do?

The President won a second term with a 3
million popular vote margin over Romney.

The President collected 303 Electoral
votes to Romney's 202. Florida was
a close contest and those electoral votes
have not been awarded yet, although the
count is favoring the President as of
this writing.  
J.

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